GI ROC Reserving study 2008

In 2008 the General Insurance Reserve Oversight Committee (GI ROC, UK) initiated a research project on the effectiveness of reserving methods.

As part of this actuaries were invited to respond to a practical survey in which they would analyse and forecast one of eight datasets (A-H) drawn from real company data using any combination of a number of pre-given standard methods.

The procedure was set up in Excel spreadsheets which were specially designed so that the data was presented in stages corresponding to annual reports. In the initial stage there was historic data for six years and only after fully formulating a reserving procedure and forecasts on the basis of this level of historic experience was the participating actuary given the following year's data. This continued for between three and five stages depending on the dataset.

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